Josh’s New Years Prediction for 2007

Josh’s New Years Prediction for 2007

Here at, we use WinXP, OS X, and Linux boxes, depending on the purpose, without prejudice.

However, after a “white paper” I just read, I am definitely buying Apple stock on Jan 3.

The paper, a dry, pictureless but very informative and cleverly written tome called “A Cost Analysis of Windows Vista Content Protection“, describes troubles with the Content Protection specification of Vista, Microsoft’s next operating system.

Here is the “Executive Executive Summary”:

“The Vista Content Protection specification could very well constitute the longest suicide note in history.”

I can imagine Jobs chuckling with delight.

The document contains many troubling things for digital media creators who plan to upgrade to Vista:

– Disabling of Functionality
– Indirect Disabling of Functionality
– Decreased Playback Quality
– Elimination of Open-source Hardware Support
– Elimination of Unified Drivers
– Denial-of-Service via Driver Revocation
– Increased Hardware Costs
– Increased Cost due to Requirement to License Unnecessary Third-party IP
– Unnecessary CPU Resource Consumption

Ostensibly, professional media applications, like editing, motion graphics and audio applications from Adobe, Avid/DigiDesign, Discreet and many other Windows developers will somehow be able to bypass or disable this protection scheme, but it might be such a laborious process that some developers will lean towards OS X or Linux, or, if cross-platform, drop the Vista version.

Or, Microsoft could come to their senses and greatly modify or abandon this spec.

But, if the predictions made in this document are true, it could make Vista systems more expensive than equivalent performance OS X systems, due to needing more powerful CPUs and GPUs, and faster busses to provide the same speed, meaning the 50% of digital media pros who use Windows might have to re-evaluate to cut costs when it comes time to upgrade their hardware.

Historically, digital media pros who use Windows systems do so either because of Windows-only software or because they were more cost-effective.

Like you, I believe digital media is the future, and so a mutiny to OS X by digital media pros will create a “sea change” that subtly, imperceptibly, will tilt the platform away from Vista.

I just did a little research to find Apple’s market share in 2006, and came up with this:

Apple U.S. Market Share:
1Q 2006: 3.5%
2Q 2006: 4.6%
3Q 2006: 6.1%

Is that a trend?

So I will go out on a limb, and make the prediction, as long as the Vista Content Protection spec stays mostly unaltered, that Apple tops 9% U.S. market share by Dec 31 2007.

Here’s wishing you all a very happy and safe New Years!

The gang at


  1. Kyle 16 years ago

    Interesting read, although I do remember Gates recently promising video people better video editing so that kinda debunks that a bit doesnt it? Vista will have its issues im sure but as far as im concerned, ill keep my new macPro. Along with that, I plan to use XP as long as the software I have can support the kind of media I use, until then its OSX and XP for me. Vista can take a hike.

  2. Mark Warren 16 years ago

    Gates promises a lot of things. I don’t think his promises debunk anything. I agree with your conclusion though, OSX and when necessary (damn you QuickBooks!) XP.

  3. Marvin 16 years ago

    Well… Having been trained as a MCSE “Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer”, and converted to OSX on the phone by none less than a Microsoft support tech (can you believe that?), I see the enormous benefits of OSX. It took COLD HARD FACTS TO WIN ME, not the mystique of tie dye and peace signs associated with Macs early on.

    With that said… It’s still a Microsoft world like it or not… I administer Microsoft networks but use Macs! I deal with compatibliity problems constantly!!! It is unlikely all the compatibility issues will be worked out within even 6 months of Vista’s release. I’m not exactly an Apple nut either…

    Though I am sold on the awesome power of the OSX operating system, I am not impressed with some of Apple’s new misleading advertising ploys such as the “Quad Core”… This before the Quad core chips were made public and this was used as a play on semantics to promote dual processor dual core chips on a single motherboard… This trickery makes me suspicious…

    Things that also bum me out with Applications made by Mac make it more than difficult to work accross media types… Ever try to export a mp3 without Itunes on a Mac? Pro tools and a couple other non-Mac based apps can do it…

    Propritary dueling will go on for ever I guess… But, remember the Beta tapes! VHS won out because of big money behind them, but a variation of Beta is still used today by professional linear cameras. Big money, whether Apple or Microsoft, does not gaurentee quality or ease of use! Look under the hood! We may be fighting a long battle with these issues…

    I think Apple will lean in favor of the video editor’s though for the most part. Microsoft has given me job security… In fixing their messed up products!

  4. Josh 16 years ago

    Anyone who followed my advice is up 9% in a few days… of course, that’s mainly MacWorld-related 🙂

  5. Josh 15 years ago

    Apple stock is up 60% since I wrote this… but because of the iPhone, not Vista self-destructing… oh well! 🙂

  6. Josh 15 years ago
  7. Josh 15 years ago
  8. Josh 14 years ago

    Mac market share keeps climbing:

  9. Josh 14 years ago

    An interesting article:

    The Apple Mac Cost Misconception : Macs and Their Prices,1985.html

  10. Josh 14 years ago

    This article basically says Vista has a fundamental security hole so big, Microsoft cannot fix it. Game over for Vista?

  11. Josh 14 years ago

    I predicted 9% Dec 31 2007. I was 6 months early:

    Macintosh share of the U.S. market tops 9%

  12. Josh 14 years ago

    Update: Of course, AAPL stock has been hammered along with all other stocks in this financial meltdown. If you followed my advice, hope you sold at $200.

    However, Mac internet share hit a record 8.82%, Windows drops below 90% for the first time, iPhone up 12%:

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